World Cup Diary - Day 29 Football's Chaos Theory

My Big Boy’s Book of Science tells me that the Chaos theory is a field of study in mathematics, with applications in several disciplines including meteorology, sociology, physics, engineering, economics, biology, and philosophy.  Nowhere does it say it applies to football too but, as we approach the end of another World Cup, I think it should be added. For there is surely nothing that indicates more that small initial conditions can produce widely diverging outcomes, than a game that involves a sphere, 30 or so men with their own issues and a game built around  a 90 – 120 minute random period of time.

Because for everyone who can point to the organisation, confidence and inner-belief of Germany, the skill of Lionel Messi and the spirit of the players around him, there are a dozen examples of men and teams no longer concerned with the World Cup who have gone out for a variety of reasons, but with no discernible explanation for why they have behaved as they have done. Random decisions, chance elements  and incorrect choices have been made at critical times and who knows what might have occurred without that ‘butterfly effect’? Of course, the prime example in 2014 will always be that of Luis Suarez and his legendary bite, but there are dozens and dozens of equally interesting examples elsewhere.

In real terms, simply saying ‘England [or insert country of choice] are rubbish’ or a random player ‘isn’t good enough’ is nonsense. In other scenarios, at other times, at other levels, England [ditto icoc] and its players are obviously more than good enough. It will be interesting to see the hundreds of thousands of fans, many of whom could barely bring themselves to utter  the names of several of the England squad a few weeks ago, welcoming their heroes back to the Premier league when it starts in a month’s time. My guess is there will be few calling for Wayne Rooney to retire  because he isn’t deemed ‘world class’ when he nets a brace against West Bromwich Albion one rainy night in November.

Much as many of us might like to deny it, reality has a habit of rearing its ugly head. A few short weeks ago, the English nation was wringing its collective hands, bemoaning the state of affairs that not only saw the national team dumped out in the group stages at the bottom of the table, but also saw an unfancied Costa Rica top the other nations. Of course, we sympathised as the South American’s went out in the quarter-final on penalties – but now?

Leaving aside the machinations of the importance of club football over the International side – a major factor in the make-up of the England mentality but barely ever discussed anywhere - the fact is some of those players who have been feted over the past weeks playing for lesser-known South American, Asian or European  teams would not get into the England side simply because they would never be picked at club level. Interesting to consider why when you look at the impact some of those players have had.  Even in the attritional and turgid semi-final between Holland and Argentina, did the final accolade not go to a goal-keeper who had barely played all season?

Put all illusions aside for a moment and consider any universe in which any England manager – past, present or future – would pick a player like Sergio Romero knowing full well he’d barely figured in a first team game all season. That manager would be pilloried by public and press alike. Yet on Sunday, this discarded keeper could be holding the World Cup. National trait or random element? You decide.

Apart from individual performances – and really, whatever your allegiances,  you can pick your own favourites out and debate them all day – there is the collective will of the group. Germany is naturally a fine example, as the squad mentality barely seems to be any different regardless of the decade of the competition or the make-up of the individuals of that group. Despite concerted efforts by everyone from the gentleman of the quality press to the lowest of the humble blogger, the World Cup does annoyingly seem to throw up national stereotypes that it’s difficult to ignore.

Even so, I’ve not seen it noted elsewhere but did no-one spot how the Germans not only appeared calm and collected within the framework of the team but also physically looked more composed? While the Brazilians – in conditions that should suit them better at home – looked sweaty and dishevelled, the Germans appeared as if they hadn’t run at all. Was it the Cooling Glove used by the team at half-time? If so, it seems to work, as none of the players looked as if they perspired. If, as one TV commentator had it “They let the ball do the work” then shouldn’t all other nations copy that? Of course, they would if they could, but put another European nation– Italy or England are obvious examples – a South American or Asian country there and see what happens. The result would not be the same -regardless of the paucity of the opposition.

And lest this be seen as a criticism of the insularity of the English or the shortcomings of other countries, lets make one thing clear; the World Cup only comes round every 4 years and there is an awful lot of football played between that period.  Example? Well,  good as this World Cup has been for goals, I’m sure I’m not alone in noticing how poorly the ball has been struck from wide areas; the quality from corners, free-kicks and open play crossing has been simply abysmal (Oddly, I’ve noticed few pundits mentioning this on TV or in the press). I wouldn’t recommend anyone watch the shocking semi-final between Argentina and Holland again – not unless you’re trying to get an early night anyway – but if you did, note the appalling crosses from Dick Kuyt that not only eluded his own forwards but also the opposition goalkeeper as they bounced behind closer to the corner-flag.

In a month’s time, my own club West Ham will kick-off a new season spearheaded by a 6’ 4” (1.91m) striker called Andy Carroll. Sam Allardyce – a manger who was under pressure for much of last season because of his direct way of playing – will ensure that every free-kick and corner will be met by the head of Carroll as he attempts to cause carnage in the penalty area in a welter of elbows and knees. Carroll will win most of these headers – we know this because he always does – and some people will moan and talk about the Premier League’s lack of finesse etc. But it’s effective and I’d much rather see the head of a huge Centre-forward finding the ball from his own team mate than watch the aimless crossing from a large percentage of the passes I’ve witnessed in this World Cup.

Of course, there will be Germans and Argentines reading this who will think “Ha! This is why the English have won nothing since 1966” and they may be right too. But ultimately, when Sunday is done and dusted there will only be one team holding the trophy and the rest will be nowhere. I’ve seen nothing in all my years of football to convince me that the winners will have conspired to do much more than bring together a random number of elements that have combines to produce an ultimate victory.  Good luck to the winners – I’d hope to see England emulate the feat of ’66 again one day – but don’t believe it ever does happen that it isn’t just another turn of the wheel; another result in the chaos in which football lives.